Andrew, you've written a variation of this several times. There are several factors you fail to mention:
Issues: Abortion. Water. Fossil Fuels. LGBTQ rights. Labor Laws. These are all tied together. Now, you include banning books, 'woke vs. anti-woke,' drag queens and voting restrictions and you still have enough people who, even though they don't want to see a rematch of 2020, don't want El Caudillo del Mar-A-Lago near the White House.
Fred Upton and others are a few years early for a viable third party. I'll give this country another decade.