I have a similar prognosis. I can see a Great Lakes Compact. (or in sports terms, Big 10 Nation) with certain parameters. I think Pennsylvania will split into Eastern and Western. Climate change will accelerate this as well. We are already seeing this. In 10 years (or less) much of the American west will become uninhabitable, (it wasn't to begin with) and with the Colorado River's headwaters not being replenished by 500" snowfalls every winter and Lake Meade's waterline dropping to historic lows, people will be displaced. Texas could (and should) leave. Rick Perry threatened to do it the day after Obama was sworn in. California, Oregon, Washington (what remains) should form an economic partnership (maybe including British Columbia, under certain circumstances), but keep ties with DC. I don't see the country lasting much longer in it's current state of paralysis and disfunction. Yugoslavia comes to mind.